The Tide Turns Again? New Jobs Exceed the Number of Law Graduates in 2016? At the conference of the Midwest Association of Prelaw Advisors held at the end of October 2013, Professor Jerry Organ predicted that jobs would exceed the number of law school graduates in 2016 (as I recall). He suggested that the market would turn because applicants to law school would continue to decline while the trend in new law jobs would hold at least steady. So, here is my attempt at supporting this prediction. I am using data provided by LSAC at the MAPLA conference, which I have discussed in earlier postings. I am also relying on data provided by NALP . I make the following assumptions: Enrollment of first-year law students will decline by 8.0% from the previous year through the 2015 entering class. Each entering class experiences an attrition rate of 12 percent. So, only 88 percent of each first-year class graduates three years later. New full-time jobs in three categori...