The War in Yemen:

Passionate Voices 

Seeking an End to the Suffering

Last week, I attended a somewhat chaotic event that showcases the intractability of the conflicts that exist in the Arab Gulf region.

The event focused on the Yemeni war.  While some of the speakers briefly mentioned international parties, including the US, in their remarks, the focus remained on the interests of Yemenis.  Speakers also mentioned the intervention of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iran in the conflict  Their focus may have changed if  Qatar University had hosted the event, just a few days later, after the drone attacks on the Saudi Arabian petroleum facilities on September 14, 2019.

The information about the event appears below.  My summary appears after that information.  In summarizing the comments of the speakers and attendees, I suffer from several disabilities.  First, I must rely on the translators because I do not speak Arabic. Second, I have not done any in-depth research into Yemen's political, economic, or social history, and know very little about the war.  Thus, I lacked context or background for many of the comments made.  For a more detailed discussion of the war, see here.

I apologize in advance if I have misstated any person's comments, and I am happy to make any needed changes.

* * * 

The Ibn Khaldon Center for Humanities and Social Sciences, in partnership with Al Jazeera Center for Studies and Brookings Doha Center, cordially invite you to the forum on:

“What is Happening in Yemen?”

Wednesday, September 11, 2019

6:30-8:30pm

Ibn Khaldon Hall - Qatar University

Speakers: 

Yaser Al-Yamani 

Leader of the General People's Congress, Yemen

Mohammed Al-Bakhit 

Member of the Political Wing of Ansarullah, Yemen 

Bakeel Al-Zandani 

Head of Department of International Affairs, Qatar University 

Said Thabit

Al Jazeera Bureau Chief in Yemen

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Moderated by 

Hamdi Al- Bokari 

Aljazeera Correspondent in Yemen

* * *

The moderator gave a brief history of the war, which started in June 2014 by Houthis aligned with the former President, Ali Abdullah Saleh.

A Houthi attack in September 2014 brought them control of the capital, Sanaa, its airport, and the Hodeidah Port.

In March 2015, the UN-recognized President of Yemen, Abdo Rabbu Mansour Hadi, fled into exile in Saudi Arabia.  Houthis then began an assault on Abyan, Aden, and Lahj.

In the summer of 2015, coalition forces regained control of Aden and five southern areas.  The coalition includes Yemeni troops supported by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, Islamists militias, and tribal fighters.

In December 2017, the former President Saleh was punished by Houthis for attempting to broker a peace deal with Saudi Arabia.  He was assassinated along with the members of his entourage.

In late 2018, Houthi fighters began using drones and reconnaissance planes to attack targets in Saudi Arabia.  In the summer of 2019, drone attacks penetrated Saudi defenses and struck several targets.

As of August 2019, the Houthis control the western part of the country.  Hadi- aligned coalition forces control Aden and other central and northern provinces.  Both Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and ISIS have increased their presence and effectiveness in the country.

International forums have sponsored peace talks.  See here, here, here, and here.

* * *

After the introductions, the moderator asked, "What is happening in Yemen?"  He also asked, "What do the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and the UAE want?"

The first speaker, Yaser Al-Yamani, responded that these countries want to (1) separate southern part from the northern part of Yemen; (2) share in Yemen's resources; (3) make the state a failure; and (4) allow the rise of militias.

The second speaker, Mohammed Al-Bakhit, joining the conversation by video link from Yemen, bemoaned the stability that existed elsewhere, but eluded countries in the Arab Gulf. He expressed concern that external actors had "confiscated" the decision-making power of Yemenis. He wanted to revive the September 21, 2014 Peace and National Partnership Agreement.  He asked "who failed to implement the deal?"  He argued that the failure to adhere to the agreement led to the war.  He sought a renewal of the National Dialogue Conference. 

The third speaker, Dr. Bakeel Al-Zandani, described the start of the war as "a Yemini coup against themselves."  He identified the interests of outside parties -- including larger Gulf countries -- in the resources of Yemen, including Yemen's strategic geographic position, its islands, its climate, and oil reserves.  Regional actors, including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Iran, are "tools" of (unnamed) international countries.  He argued that the Houthis are linked to Iran.  

The last speaker, Said Thabit, emphasized the new formation of the geopolitical map in the region, not unlike the changes in the control of Syria and Iraq.  The war can be seen as a revolution by all Yemenis responding to the political maps drawn since 1918 in Yemen by outside parties.  But, outside parties now seek to redraw the map again using Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iran as proxies.  The 2014 Peace and Partnership Agreement, a historic document, involved all of the Yemeni factions in the negotiations, including the Houthis.  He suggested that the end to the 5-year conflict will require a political solution.  But, the conflict has become more granular with more competing factions and interests.  Aden should remain a red line that the Houthis do not cross.  People in this region will not accept Houthi rule or control, because they reject a sectarian frame for the conflict. 

The moderator then asked, "Who can regain legitimacy?"

Yamani replied that Yemenis must prevent the Saudis and Emirates from expanding their influence in the country.  

Al-Bakhat agreed that the Houthis had not met their objectives, especially after their ouster from Aden.  He would like to see the various factions follow the Peace and Partnership Agreement, release prisoners, and reassert Yemeni sovereignty and independence.  A new authority will govern.  Yemenis should not be subject to unilateral decision-making.  He expressed concern that Yemen was currently controlled by the United States. He asserted that the Houthis were not linked to Iran.  Instead they are linked to other political Islamist groups, including Palestinians, Hezbollah, and Hamas.  Iran supports the Houthis because Iran shares the same goals as the Houthis and these groups.  

Al-Zardani suggested that international powers, including the US, sought to end Arab revolutions against regional autocrats. In contrast, the leading factions in Yemen seek to protect its sovereignty and independence.  At this point people are suspicious of the goals of the coalition forces.  He also stated that it was appropriate to have relations with Iran, "but for what reason?"  He also said that a balance of power does not exist that might lead to an end to the war. 

Thabit reiterated that Saudi Arabia and the UAE want control of parts of Yemen.

* * * 

The moderator then opened the floor to attendee questions and "interventions.  Apparently, many Yemenis attended the event.  It was during this part of the programming that passions flared and it became more chaotic. At one point, the translator gave up and simply said the parties were talking over each other.  Comments from attendees included the following:

• The dispute raises questions of sectarian versus patriotic loyalty.
• When will Yemenis engage in concessions to save Yemen?
• Israel is the meddler.
• Why decline the interests of the Houthis?  
• Houthis do not accept partnership or dialogue.  Why haven't they accepted elections? 
• Yemenis lived in agony from 2011 to 2014.  Houthis saw it as a golden opportunity to seek gains.
• UAE says it is fighting terrorism.
• Not one party can rule Yemen, no matter how powerful.
• Parties must return to a political track with multi-faction dialogue.
• We do not know the intentions of Saudi Arabia or the UAE.

The moderator returned to the panel members and asked, Why hasn't the legitimate government spoken out?  What has it done? "What kind of concessions are possible to end the war?"  "How can parties reach a clarifying point in the complex conflict?"  What are the options for the future?  Will regional powers accept a renewed dialogue among Yemenis?

Al-Yamani asserted that President Hadi is essentially a prisoner in Saudi Arabia.

Al-Bakhit responded that Yemeins must stop killing each other.  They need to respect each other.  They don't need to make concessions.  He asserted that Yemen cannot hold elections now.  Instead, Yemenis should be working in a partnership relationship. 

Al-Zandani said that if Yemenis did not make concessions among themselves, they would be making concessions with foreign powers.  

Thabit stated that the National Dialogue Conference took two years to produce an output document, and the parties had the opportunity to "discuss everything."  He acknowledged that Yemenis tend to rely on external powers to resolve problems.  He does not see Yemen returning to its pre-coup days.  It will need a new formula of power sharing.  Yemenis can start where the last dialogue ended.  He predicted three outcomes for Yemen: disintegration, a partition of Yemen, or a political outcome that protects its sovereignty. 

For other summaries of this event, see here and here.

Interestingly, the original panel of speakers changed between the time I received the event invitation and the day of the event.  Here is a list of the original panelists. 

Hossain Abdullah Al-Ahmar

Advisor to the President of Yemen

Sheikhan Abdulrahman Al-Dabi

Assistant Secretary General of Al-Islah Party, Yemen

Yaser Al-Yamani
Leader of the General People's Congress, Yemen

Ahmad Al-Saleh

Leader and Activist in the Separatist Movement, Yemen

Mohammed Al-Bakhit

Member of the Political Wing of Ansarullah, Yemen

Bakeel Al-Zandani

Head of Department of International Affairs, Qatar University

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Moderated by

Said Thabit

Al Jazeera Bureau Chief in Yemen