Qatar & COVID-19, Part 7: Holding onto Gains After a Month of Phase 4 Activity

What Will Cooler Weather Bring as 

People Move About Even More?

Qatar officials have successfully kept new infections below 300 cases per day in September, with ICU admissions continuing to drop into the mid-50s.  Active cases hover just below 3,000.  Officials report that most cases continue to be community infections with less than 15 infections per day tied to incoming travelers.

Authorities stepped up arrests of people violating home quarantine. On 17 days in September, they arrested 72 men, and with few exceptions, published their names in local news papers.  Authorities also closed gyms, salons, restaurants, and massage centers for violating precautionary measures.  They established a hotline to report violations at 16001.

Schools began a cautious return to the classroom, with online teaching options. QU remained on distance learning for the Fall 2020 semester, except for mid-term and final exams. More nurseries opened to help working parents. More mosques opened for prayers. Officials felt secure in moving to part 2 of the Phase 4 reopening. 

As people continue to enjoy cooler weather and increased freedom under the Phase 4 protocols, risks increase for rising infections.  Based on my personal experience, people in Qatar are wearing masks at high rates, are mindful of social distancing, and remain cautious and courteous.  Let's hope we can continue to enjoy our hard-won freedoms without having to resort to an earlier phase of lock down. As folks here would say: Insh'allah. 

I would like to see better mask disposal practices.  I often see discarded masks in shopping trollies or on parking garage floors.  I would hope people would throw them safely into bins, and snip the elastic straps so marine animals will not be trapped in them if they enter the waters of Qatar. 

People continue to track news about possible vaccines.  While the CDC in the US suggested (then retracted that suggestion) that a vaccine will be available in November 2020, this article provided a very helpful summary of the progress in vaccine development and the strategies scientists are using to create vaccines. 

This article answers some of the puzzling questions about the pandemic.  It's about clusters that act as super-spreader events.  Focus on k, not R0 (R-naught).  "There’s something strange about this coronavirus pandemic. Even after months of extensive research by the global scientific community, many questions remain open.  Why, for instance, was there such an enormous death toll in northern Italy, but not the rest of the country? Just three contiguous regions in northern Italy have 25,000 of the country’s nearly 36,000 total deaths; just one region, Lombardy, has about 17,000 deaths. Almost all of these were concentrated in the first few months of the outbreak. What happened in Guayaquil, Ecuador, in April, when so many died so quickly that bodies were abandoned in the sidewalks and streets?* Why, in the spring of 2020, did so few cities account for a substantial portion of global deaths, while many others with similar density, weather, age distribution, and travel patterns were spared? What can we really learn from Sweden, hailed as a great success by some because of its low case counts and deaths as the rest of Europe experiences a second wave, and as a big failure by others because it did not lock down and suffered excessive death rates earlier in the pandemic? Why did widespread predictions of catastrophe in Japan not bear out? The baffling examples go on."

For a summary of what we know about the virus, see here. 

These charts trace the history of the pandemic in Qatar.   This website tracks infections, active cases, and deaths in Qatar. 

This website tracks the pandemic in the US.

This Twitter account, FacesOfCOVID, is humanizing the loss in the US by presenting the individual stories of persons who have died of COVD-19.

This is still one of the best articles I've found on the public health strategy for handling the pandemic.  It's called "Coronovirus: The Hammer and the Dance."

This blog provides easy access to trends in infection, hospitalization, and deaths and to the ongoing changes in government policy in light of infection rates. 

Qatar's Response to the Pandemic:  The Ongoing Timeline 

What follows is a time-line I created to track mostly Qatar's response to the pandemic,  Tangentially and for comparison, it refers to developments in the US, China, EU, and other countries.  For its sourcing, I have relied on The Peninsula Qatar, Gulf News, Gulf Times, Qatar Tribune, Al Jazeera, the New York Times, and the Washington Post.  I often reproduce content from the original source without using quotation marks, but I always include a link to the original source.

I include photos that tie to the more important posts, so you can use them to help locate specific information.

I pick-up my daily updates here.   My updates for December 31, 2019 to April 30, 2020, appear in my Part 1 post.  Posts for Part 2, May 1 to May 31, appear here.  Posts for Part 3, June 1 to June 30, appear here.  Posts for Part 4, July 1 to July 31, appear here.  Posts for Part 5, August 1 to August 31, appear here.  Posts for Part 6, September 1 to September 30, appear here. 

Oct. 1:  New cases have dipped below 200.  Qatar has not seen that level of new cases since April 3, 2020.

Qatar reported 199 new cases, bringing total to 125,959. ICU patients currently number 58, with 7 admissions in the last 24 hours. The death toll stands at 214 for the past several days. Active cases total 2,834.

Officials announce that Phase 4 will continue while cautioning people to take care to prevent infection. 

An ambitious study of nearly 85,000 of those cases and nearly 600,000 of their contacts, published Wednesday in the journal Science, offers important insights not just for India, but for other low- and middle-income countries.  Among the surprises: The median hospital stay before death from Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus, was five days in India, compared with two weeks in the United States, possibly because of limited access to quality care. And the trend in increasing deaths with age seemed to drop off after age 65 — perhaps because Indians who live past that age tend to be relatively wealthy and have access to good health care.  The contact tracing study also found that children of all ages can become infected with the coronavirus and spread it to others — offering compelling evidence on one of the most divisive questions about the virus.  And the report confirmed, as other studies have, that a small number of people are responsible for seeding a vast majority of new infections.  Over all, the researchers found, 71 percent of the people in the study did not seem to have transmitted the virus to anyone else; instead, just 5 percent of people accounted for 80 percent of the infections detected by contact tracing. He and his colleagues also looked at infections in contacts by age and sex, and found that infected people tend to spread the virus to those of similar ages.  More here.

The correlations between Covid-19 and obesity are worrisome. In one report published last month, researchers found that people with obesity who caught the coronavirus were more than twice as likely to end up in the hospital and nearly 50 percent more likely to die of Covid-19. Another study, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, showed that among nearly 17,000 hospitalized Covid-19 patients in the United States, more than 77 percent had excess weight or obesity.  One of fat’s most potent effects appears to involve quelling the body’s initial immune response to the virus, allowing the pathogen to spread unchecked. Obesity could also affect the efficacy of vaccines. If the immune systems of people with obesity are more prone to pathogen amnesia, then they may need different dosages of a vaccine. Some products might not work at all in people carrying extra weight.

Oct. 2:  Qatar reported 205 new cases, bringing total to 126,164. ICU patients currently number 59, with 4 admissions in the last 24 hours. The death toll stands at 205 after the death of a 63-year old. Active cases total 2,841.

Qatar Airways will launch pre-flight rapid Covid-19 testing for passengers beginning the middle of this month.

Authorities arrested four men for violating home quarantine. 

Donald and Melania Trump test positive for virus and Trump is taken to Walter Reed Hospital for treatment with experimental drugs.  Rose Garden event for Supreme Court nominee seemed to be a super-spreader event, with 34 White House administration officials and staff testing positive in a week after the event.  

Oct. 3:  Qatar reported 175 new cases, bringing total to 126,339. ICU patients currently number 58, with 5 admissions in the last 24 hours. The death toll stands at 216 after the death of an 83-year old. Active cases total 2,821.

Authorities arrested four men for violating home quarantine. 

Oct. 4:   Qatar reported 159 new cases, bringing total to 126,498. ICU patients currently number 58, with 2 admissions in the last 24 hours. The death toll stands at 216.  Active cases total 2,807.

The Government Health Communication Center of Ministry of Public Health (MoPH) can be contacted for any inquiry, feedback, or questions related to Ehteraz App or the status of Ehteraz app or other health services through the website link here.

The Ministry of Public Health is in advanced negotiations with a number of international pharmaceutical companies to procure a COVID-19 vaccine as soon as it is released for global use.  Dr. Al Khal explained that the Ministry of Public Health is in advanced negotiations with several leading international pharmaceutical companies working on a COVID-19 vaccine with the aim of procuring a sufficient quantity of vaccines to ensure everyone who is eligible for the vaccine in Qatar is able to receive one as soon as possible.

Oct. 5:  Qatar reported 194 new cases, bringing total to 126,692. ICU patients currently number 59, with 5 admissions in the last 24 hours. The death toll stands at 216.  Active cases total 2,812.

Quick COVID tests start experimental evaluation phase. “There are number of methods to test and diagnose COVID1-9. First is Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) test, which is regarded as the most accurate test, performed by taking a swab from the throat and nose. Second is the serological test for detection of antibodies done by taking blood sample and third is the antigen rapid testing,” she said.  “Antigen tests is a rapid screening performed by taking a swab from the nose and entered into a testing card after adding drops of regulator solution. The test result is available within ten minutes,” said Dr Al Kuwari in a video message.

Authorities arrest two men for violating home quarantine. 

Lebsear Field Hospital has discharged last Covid-19 patient today. The 504-bed field hospital was opened in May to support Covid-19 hospitals and has cared 1,884 patients, said Dr Abdullah Rasheed Al Naimi, Clinical Lead of the hospital.  The hospital treated expat men.

Nearly a third of hospitalized Covid-19 patients experienced some type of altered mental function — ranging from confusion to delirium to unresponsiveness — in the largest study to date of neurological symptoms among coronavirus patients in an American hospital system.  And patients with altered mental function had significantly worse medical outcomes, according to the study, published on Monday in Annals of Clinical and Translational Neurology. The study looked at the records of the first 509 coronavirus patients hospitalized, from March 5 to April 6, at 10 hospitals in the Northwestern Medicine health system in the Chicago area.  These patients stayed three times as long in the hospital as patients without altered mental function.

Oct. 6:  Qatar reported 251 new cases, bringing total to 126,943. ICU patients currently number 56, with 3 admissions in the last 24 hours. The death toll stands at 216.  Active cases total 2,834.

In an impressive move supporting public health, the Ministry of Public Health has decided to make COVID-19 vaccine available for all residents of State of Qatar free of cost.

Authorities arrest three men for violating home quarantine. 

Oct. 7:  Qatar reported 238 new cases, bringing total to 127,181. ICU patients currently number 56, with 3 admissions in the last 24 hours. The death toll stands at 218 after the deaths of a 72- and an 82-year old. Active cases total 2,855.

Oct. 8:  Qatar reported 213 new cases, bringing total to 127,394. ICU patients currently number 56, with 5 admissions in the last 24 hours. The death toll stands at 218.  Active cases total 2,849.

Officials reassure people that new infection rate remains stable, and the country is not experiencing a second wave of infections. 

Oct. 9:  Qatar reported 206 new cases, bringing total to 127,600. ICU patients currently number 55, with 4 admissions in the last 24 hours. The death toll stands at 219 after the death of a 64-year old. Active cases total 2,822.

Authorities arrest three men for violating home quarantine. 

Oct. 10:  Qatar reported 178 new cases, bringing total to 127,778. ICU patients currently number 54, with 1 admission in the last 24 hours. The death toll stands at 219. Active cases total 2,792.

US is showing signs of a third wave of infections.

Oct. 11:  Qatar reported 207 new cases, bringing total to 127,985. ICU patients currently number 56, with 8 admissions in the last 24 hours. The death toll stands at 220 after the death of an 84-year old. Active cases total 2,787.

Qatar is manufacturing 1 million liters of hand sanitizers a month. 

Oct. 12:  Qatar reported 206 new cases, bringing total to 128,191. ICU patients currently number 55, with 3 admissions in the last 24 hours. The death toll stands at 220. Active cases total 2,795.

Ministry of Public Health has approved 32 health centres in the country that can conduct a PCR test for the novel coronavirus.

Study out of Australia shows that virus will survive 28 days on surfaces when not exposed to UV light.  So be careful about sanitizing surfaces, including your cell phone.  

Oct. 13:  Qatar reported 214 new cases, bringing total to 128,405. ICU patients currently number 56, with 3 admissions in the last 24 hours. The death toll stands at 220. Active cases total 2,812.

Authorities arrested three men in Qatar for violating home quarantine. 

Qatar has extended to the end of the year the requirement that incoming arrivals quarantine,, including nationals, residents, and visa-holders.

Johnson & Johnson has paused the large late-stage clinical trial of its coronavirus vaccine because of an “unexplained illness” in one of the volunteers, the company said on Monday evening.  The company did not say whether the sick participant had received the experimental vaccine or a placebo. The pause was first reported by Stat.  Johnson & Johnson, which just began the so-called Phase 3 trial of its vaccine last month, was behind several of its competitors in the vaccine race, but its vaccine had some advantages over others. It does not need to be frozen, and it could need just one dose instead of two. It would also be the largest trial, with a goal of enrolling 60,000 volunteers.  “Adverse events — illnesses, accidents, etc. — even those that are serious, are an expected part of any clinical study, especially large studies,” the company said in a statement. “We’re also learning more about this participant’s illness, and it’s important to have all the facts before we share additional information.”

Fifth case of reinfection confirmed, this time in a man in Nevada, USA.  The second infection  was worse than the first. The two infections in the Nevada patient occurred about six weeks apart, according to a case study published Monday in the medical journal The Lancet. The patient originally tested positive for the virus in April and had symptoms including a cough and nausea. He recovered and tested negative for the virus in May.

This image shows how small the coronavirus compared to other particles.

In recent days, France, Russia, Nepal and several American states have set records for their highest daily number of new infections.

The Italian government continued to tighten restrictions in an effort to stem a resurgence in virus cases, announcing on Tuesday a ban on informal amateur contact sports, parties and school trips. The decree, signed by Italy’s prime minister Giuseppe Conte, represents a second crackdown in less than a week as the second wave of the coronavirus, which seemed to have hit Italy less violently than other European countries, is now gaining strength, with 4,619 new cases registered on Monday. The new decree introduces a general ban on parties and recommends private gatherings be limited to no more than six people inside homes. It also sets a limit of 30 guests for banquets organized after religious or civil ceremonies. To avoid crowds, Mr. Conte also ordered restaurants, bars and ice-cream sellers to stop serving non-seated customers after 9 p.m.

Singapore recorded no new local cases of Covid-19 for the first time since February, as the city-state rebounded from an outbreak in migrant worker dormitories that at one stage contributed to more than a thousand infections a day. There were no cases in the community as well as in the foreign worker dormitories, according to a statement Tuesday from the Ministry of Health. This was the first time that no new cases were reported in the workers’ dorms since late March. The country still saw four new imported cases.  

Worldwide, the coronavirus pandemic has sickened more than 37,860,200 people, according to official counts. As of Tuesday morning, at least 1,081,200 people have died, and the virus has been detected in nearly every country.

Oct. 14:  Qatar reported 198 new cases, bringing total to 128,603. ICU patients currently number 57, with 5 admissions in the last 24 hours. The death toll stands at 220. Active cases total 2,799.

Europe is seeing record numbers of new coronavirus cases.  The continent reported over 700,000 new coronavirus cases last week — its highest weekly total yet, according to the World Health Organization.  This surge represents a 36% increase from the week prior, in which Europe reported fewer than 520,000 cases. Europe's population is about 740 million.

Oct. 15:   Qatar reported 218 new cases, bringing total to 128,803. ICU patients currently number 55, with 2 admissions in the last 24 hours. The death toll stands at 222 after the death of a 46- and 83-year old. Active cases total 2,779.

Authorities arrest two men for violating home quarantine. 

Oct. 16:  Qatar reported 189 new cases, bringing total to 128,992. ICU patients currently number 54, with 5 admissions in the last 24 hours. The death toll stands at 222. Active cases total 2,764.

The antiviral drug Remdesivir does not appear to have a beneficial impact on coronavirus patients’ chances of survival, according to a study sponsored by the World Health Organization.  At the same time, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved Gilead Sciences Inc.’s antiviral therapy Remdesivir on Thursday, making it the first drug to obtain formal clearance for treating the coronavirus.
Regulators had granted an emergency-use authorization for Remdesivir earlier this year, and since then the drug has become a widely used therapy in hospitalized Covid-19 patients. It was given to President Donald Trump this month when he was diagnosed with the virus.

For the first time since late July, the tally of newly reported coronavirus cases in the United States surpassed 64,000. In 44 states and the District of Columbia, caseloads are higher than they were one month ago, and many of the new infections are being reported in rural areas with limited hospital capacity.  More than 7,944,000 cases have been reported nationwide since February, and at least 216,000 people in the United States have died of covid-19, the disease caused by the virus.

A 13-year-old girl spread the coronavirus to 11 relatives across four states this summer, despite testing negative two days before a three-week family vacation, a recent journal article released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention revealed.  The trip occurred at an undisclosed location in June and July, and it infected family members from ages 9 to 72 who traveled to a home that was shared between five households. No masks or distancing measures were in place. The teen was exposed to an unspecified covid-19 outbreak in June before testing negative, the report says. Nasal congestion was her only symptom.  

Europe set a record this week for new coronavirus infections, overtaking the United States in cases per capita, and a top World Health Organization official warned on Thursday that death rates on the continent this winter could be five times worse than the April peak if people are not strict about masks and social distancing.

Oct. 17:   Qatar reported 235 new cases, bringing total to 129,227. ICU patients currently number 52, with 4 admissions in the last 24 hours. The death toll stands at 223 after the death of a 70-year old. Active cases total 2,786. 

Authorities arrest three men for violating home quarantine. 

Oct. 18:   Qatar reported 204 new cases, bringing total to 129,431. ICU patients currently number 51, with 4 admissions in the last 24 hours. The death toll stands at 224 after the death of a 51-year old. Active cases total 2,801. 

Oct. 19:  Qatar reported 240 new cases, bringing total to 129,671. ICU patients currently number 49, with no admissions in the last 24 hours. The death toll stands at 224. Active cases total 2,797. 

Ministry launches online educational platform for younger students. It offers the internationally recognized British Edexcel curriculum with students in Nursery (2-4 years), Lower Primary (5-7 years), and Upper Primary (8-10+ years). The tuition fees range from QR874 for nursery kids, QR1747 for lower primary, and QR2620 for upper primary.  SKS boasts nine teachers from Nigeria, Pakistan, Jordan, Zimbabwe, and India. It will offer classes in Maths, Literacy, Science, Computing, Social Studies, and History.  Other subjects are Geography, Civic Education, Physical Education, Language, Arts & Crafts, Quran & Islamic Studies, and Christian Religious Knowledge.

Authorities arrest four men for violating home quarantine. 

Qatar Airways reports extremely low numbers of Covid-19 cases on board its aircraft after operating more than 4.6 million passenger flown sectors and over 33 billion revenue passenger kilometres on more than 37,000 Covid -19-free flights across the globe since February 2020.  The success of the airline’s robust Covid -19 monitoring, detection and hygiene program has resulted in more than 99.988 per cent of passengers travelling Covid -19-free on board, with significantly less than one per cent of passengers confirmed to have tested positive by local authorities following a Qatar Airways flight.  In addition to this, significantly less than one per cent (0.002%) of operating cabin crew have been affected on board to date, with no new cases recorded since the airline introduced its full PPE in-flight uniform in May 2020, as well as the inclusion of passenger face shields on all flights.

Oct. 20:  Qatar reported 273 new cases, bringing total to 129,944. ICU patients currently number 44, with 2 admissions in the last 24 hours. The death toll stands at 224. Active cases total 2,854. 

Authorities arrest seven men for violating home quarantine. 

Data shows that while the Swedish approach to the pandemic blunted its economic impact, it cuased higher rates of death.  The cumulative number of deaths from coronavirus infections per million people was 52 in Norway, 64 in Finland, and 118 in Denmark, according to Johns Hopkins University. In Sweden it was 581 — not that far below the United States with 673. Comparisons of infection rates are less reliable because of differences in the testing volume, but here, too, Sweden stands out, relative to its neighbors. Registered cases in Sweden are slightly above 106,300, compared with around 13,800 in Finland and 16,600 in Norway — each with about half the population of Sweden.

Oct. 21: Qatar reported 226 new cases, bringing total to 130,210. ICU patients currently number 42, with no admissions in the last 24 hours. The death toll stands at 225 after the death of a 78-year old. Active cases total 2,892. 

More than a million Covid-19 infections have been prevented by the steps Qatar has taken to combat the pandemic, one of the country’s leading health officials has told a webinar organized by a Qatar Foundation partner university.  Dr Abdullatif Al Khal, Deputy Chief Medical Officer at Hamad Medical Corporation, explained during an Al Maerifa Public Seminar hosted by Texas A&M University at Qatar that without the restrictions and public health measures put in place when COVID-19 struck, the impact of the virus on Qatar would have been so serious that it would have overwhelmed the nation’s healthcare system.

The National Human Rights Committee (NHRC) organized yesterday a webinar on the rights of the elderly in times of crisis. The webinar presented a set of working papers related to the rights of the elderly in times of health crises. Head of the Investigation and Legal Consultation Department at NHRC Nasser Al Marri presented a working paper on the rights of the elderly in the context of the international human rights conventions.

In a matter of weeks, one of the most closely watched human experiments in history will start to report results, with early data on prospective coronavirus vaccines possibly coming this month or next from pharmaceutical giant Pfizer and biotechnology company Moderna.  Progress toward a vaccine, or vaccines, has been steady, reassuring and scientific. Political meddling has so far been largely deflected. Drug companies, working closely with the U.S. government and fueled by an infusion of more than $10 billion of taxpayer money, have developed, tested and scaled up a half-dozen potential vaccines at unprecedented speed.

President Trump has downplayed the virus over 160 times. 

Oct. 22:  Qatar reported 252 new cases, bringing total to 130,462. ICU patients currently number 38, with 2 admissions in the last 24 hours. The death toll stands at 228 after the death of two 78- and an 81-year old. Active cases total 2,906.

Authorities update list of low-risk countries for persons entering Qatar. 

Ministry announces that students will attend in-person classes on a rotational basis, with precautions and exemptions.  A senior health official said today that if Covid-19 cases are discovered in three classes in the same school with positive cases of Coronavirus, then the school will be closed completely for two weeks.  If 5% of the teachers or school workers are infected with Corona, the school will be closed for two weeks.

Ireland is the first European country to return to lockdown to control the spread of the virus. 

Oct. 23:

Authorities will continue travel and return policies with some amendments. Details provided in this link. 

Experts urge people to get free flu shot.  Here is the list of places you can get the vaccine. Flu shots are more important than ever.   Both the Covid-19 and flu have the same symptoms and getting co-infected with flu and coronavirus can lead to severe complications.  It takes two weeks to develop flu antibodies after getting the vaccine. 

Public events require prior approval.  As part of COVID-19 precautionary measures, organisers of exhibitions, conferences, cultural and sports events are required to take approval from the Ministry of Public Health (MoPH).

Authorities arrest five men for violating home quarantine.  

In Europe, new data shows that the pandemic is still dangerous and that adherence to control measures over the next few weeks will be crucial in preventing hospitals from becoming overrun for a second time this year.

In the US, the coronavirus pandemic caused nearly 300,000 deaths in the United States through early October, federal researchers.  The new tally includes not only deaths known to have been directly caused by the coronavirus, but also roughly 100,000 fatalities that are indirectly related and would not have occurred if not for the virus.  The study, published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, is an attempt to measure “excess deaths” — deaths from all causes that statistically exceed those normally occurring in a certain time period. The total included deaths from Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus, that were misclassified or missed altogether. Many experts believe this measure tracks the pandemic’s impact more accurately than official Covid-19 death reports do, and they warn that the death toll may continue an inexorable climb if policies are not put in effect to contain the spread.  Experts expect excess deaths to reach well over 400,000 by the end of the year if current trends continue.

Eighty experts have issued a declaration countering the Trump administration's support for a strategy allowing natural "herd immunity" to develop among less vulnerable members of the population without the aid of vaccines. The Declaration, the John Snow Memorandum (named after a legendary epidemiologist), says that the Trump administration's approach would endanger Americans who have underlying conditions that put them at high risk from severe Covid-19 — at least one-third of U.S. citizens, by most estimates — and result in perhaps a half-million deaths.

An attempt to achieve herd immunity in the US without vaccines would result in at least half a million additional deaths. 

Oct. 23:

In the past seven days, seven countries — Argentina, Brazil, Britain, France, India, Russia and the U.S. — have each reported at least 100,000 new cases of the coronavirus, helping to push total cases worldwide to more than 40.7 million.

In the US, at least 222,000 people have died, and 8.3 million people have become infected.   More than 75,000 cases of the coronavirus were announced in the United States, the second-highest daily total nationwide since the pandemic began. Eight states set single-day case records, and 13 states have added more cases in the past week than in any other seven-day stretch.

Even young people in US face risks from the illness.

Worldwide, at least 1.14 million people have died, and 41.7 million people have become infected. 

Oct. 24:

The Johnson & Johnson coronavirus vaccine trial, paused earlier this month due to an unexplained illness in a participant, is preparing to restart after investigators concluded the man’s stroke did not appear to be related to the vaccine, according to two individuals familiar with the trial who spoke on the condition of anonymity.  The AstraZeneca vaccine trial, on hold in the United States since early September, also got the greenlight Friday to restart from the Food and Drug Administration, according to a company statement.

US saw another sad day.  Since the start of October, the rise in cases has been steady and inexorable, with no plateau in sight. By the end of the day, more than 85,000 cases had been reported across the country, breaking the single-day record set on July 16 by about 10,000 cases.  By that measure, Friday was the worst day of the pandemic, and health experts warned of a further surge as cold weather sets in. The number of people hospitalized with Covid-19 has already risen 40 percent in the past month. Deaths have remained relatively flat but are often a lagging indicator.

Oct. 25:

Oct. 26:  

In the US, the presidential campaign was roiled this weekend by a fresh outbreak of the novel coronavirus at the White House that infected at least five aides or advisers to Vice President Pence, a spread that President Trump’s top staffer acknowledged Sunday he had tried to avoid disclosing to the public.  With the election a little over a week away, the new White House outbreak spotlighted the administration’s failure to contain the pandemic as hospitalizations surge across much of the United States and daily new cases hit all-time highs.  The outbreak around Pence, who chairs the White House’s coronavirus task force, undermines the argument Trump has been making to voters that the country is “rounding the turn,” as the president put it at a rally Sunday in New Hampshire.  Further complicating Trump’s campaign-trail pitch was an extraordinary admission Sunday from White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows that the administration had effectively given up on trying to slow the virus’s spread.

Italy became the latest European country to announce new restrictions to stop the spread of the novel coronavirus on Sunday as countries across the continent continue to report surging infections.

France announced more than 50,000 new infections, a new record for the fourth day running. Germany, widely lauded for its initial handling of the virus, reported a surge of its own. The number of coronavirus cases in Poland has doubled in less than three weeks. And Spain has also imposed new restrictions.

The World Health Organization reported new daily case records worldwide three days in a row last week, with new infections reaching more than 465,000 on Saturday. Almost half of those cases were in the organization’s Europe region. 

Oct. 27:

A U.K. study released late Monday found that the number of people with COVID-19 antibodies fell significantly over a three-month period, indicating that people who contract the virus are likely not out of the woods and can contract the virus again. The study of more than 350,000 people by Imperial College London showed the number of people with antibodies declined by 26 percent between June and September. The preliminary findings have yet to be reviewed and confirmed by other experts, but the preliminary data casts serious doubt on the possibility that some form of herd immunity is attainable without widespread vaccination.

An article suggests we should not be too worried about the results of this study.  But several experts said these worries were overblown. It is normal for levels of antibodies to drop after the body clears an infection, but immune cells carry a memory of the virus and can churn out fresh antibodies when needed. The research also raised some fears about the ability of vaccines to help populations reach herd immunity, the point at which enough people would be immune to the coronavirus to thwart its spread. It’s too early to know how long immunity to the new coronavirus lasts, and whether people can be reinfected many months to a year after a first bout with the virus. Still, experts said worries about vaccines, too, are unwarranted. “The vaccine doesn’t have to mimic or mirror the natural infection,” said Shane Crotty, a virologist at the La Jolla Institute for Immunology. “Certainly I wouldn’t be alarmist about these data.”

Some survivors of Covid-19 carry worrying signs that their immune system has turned on the body, reminiscent of potentially debilitating diseases like lupus and rheumatoid arthritis, a new study has found.  At some point, the body’s defense system in these patients shifted into attacking itself, rather than the virus, the study suggests. The patients are producing molecules called “autoantibodies” that target genetic material from human cells, instead of from the virus. This misguided immune response may exacerbate severe Covid-19. It may also explain why so-called “long haulers” have lingering problems months after their initial illness has resolved and the virus is gone from their bodies. The findings carry important implications for treatment: Using existing tests that can detect autoantibodies, doctors could identify patients who might benefit from treatments used for lupus and rheumatoid arthritis. There is no cure for these diseases, but some treatments decrease the frequency and severity of flare-ups.

Oct. 28:

In Australia, one of the world’s longest novel coronavirus lockdowns wound down Wednesday morning, allowing roughly 5 million people in the Australian city of Melbourne to leave home anytime they want, eat dinner at a restaurant and drink at bars for the first time in more than three months. The lockdown lasted 111 days. 

Oct. 29:

Death rates are dropping and not just because more younger people have survived infection. As the virus continued its rampage over the summer and fall, infecting nearly 8.5 million Americans, survival rates, even for seriously ill patients, appeared to be improving. At a New York hospital system where 30 percent of coronavirus patients died in March, the death rate had dropped to 3 percent by the end of June.  Doctors in England observed a similar trend. “In late March, four in 10 people in intensive care were dying.” said John M. Dennis, a University of Exeter Medical School researcher. “By the end of June, survival was over 80 percent.” Researchers at NYU Langone Health zeroed in on this question, analyzing the outcomes of more than 5,000 patients hospitalized at the system’s three hospitals from March through August. They concluded the improvement was real, not just the result of a younger patient pool.Even when they controlled for differences in the patients’ age, sex, race, underlying health problems and severity of Covid symptoms — like blood-oxygen levels at admission — they found that death rates had dropped significantly, to 7.6 percent in August from 25.6 percent in March. A combination of factors contributed to the improved outcomes of hospital patients, experts said. As clinicians gained more experience with the disease, they became better able to manage it, incorporating the use of steroid drugs and non-drug interventions.  Researchers have also credited heightened community awareness. Patients are seeking care earlier in the course of their illness. And outcomes may also have improved as the load on hospitals lightened and there was less pressure on the medical staff.

France and Germany are returning to lockdown restrictions as intensive care beds fill and new coronavirus infections test the countries’ health-care systems.  In Germany, bars, restaurants and theaters will close for four weeks, while schools will stay open. Classes will also remain open in France, where President Emmanuel Macron is expected to release more information about a national shutdown Thursday.

In the US, Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top infectious-disease expert, said for the first time that the United States needs a nationwide mask mandate to combat the rising tide of coronavirus infections. In interviews with CNBC and the Journal of the American Medical Association, Fauci expressed regret that masks haven’t been adopted more widely and suggested that doing so would be key to avoiding another round of shutdowns.

Oct. 30:

Oct. 31:

Belgium, which has one of the world’s highest Covid-19 infection rates, announced a national lockdown on Friday, calling it a “last chance” to keep the country’s health care system from collapse. Belgium, with 11 million inhabitants, has an average of 15,000 cases per day, and hospitals have been filling at an alarming rate for weeks. Doctors warned that unless radical steps were taken, intensive care units would be overwhelmed.

A study of household transmission shows how quickly the virus can spread at home.  Of the 191 household contacts in the study, 102 — or 53 percent — became infected within a week or so of the first patient’s diagnosis. Many who contracted the disease at home had no symptoms, “underscoring the potential for transmission from asymptomatic secondary contacts and the importance of quarantine,” the researchers wrote.  In 14 households, the first patient was younger than 18. Among those younger than 12 years, 53 percent appeared to have spread the disease. Of patients aged 12 to 17 years, 38 percent apparently infected someone else at home.  The study helps fill important gaps in the evidence about how the coronavirus spreads. There has not been much systematic study of household transmission, and data on disease spread from children has been limited, the researchers said.

The reproduction rate (R0 or R naught) of the cornavirus, if no one takes precautions, is about 3.  In other words, one person will infect three other people. By comparison, measles has a R0 of about 15; seasonal flu is about 1; and polio is about 6.  See the chart below for the list of R0 for several infectious diseases.  For coronovirus in the UK, the latest R0 estimate from the government's scientific advisory group Sage is between 1.1 and 1.4.

The US recorded over 99,000 coronavirus cases on Friday, a level reached for the first time since the pandemic began. After eight months battling the virus, nearly two dozen states are reporting their worst weeks for new cases — and none are recording improvements.  Sixteen states reported single-day records for new cases on Friday: Iowa, Kentucky, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, Montana, Illinois, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Oregon, Kansas, Ohio, Colorado and Maine. And three states hit record deaths: Tennessee, Montana and New Mexico.  Hospitalizations and deaths are also trending upward. Across the nation, more than 46,600 people were hospitalized with the virus on Friday, an increase of about 25 percent over the last two weeks, according to the COVID Tracking Project. The country has averaged just over 800 deaths a day over the last week, up from about 700 a month ago. On Thursday, more than 1,000 Americans died from Covid-19, an increase of 16 percent from two weeks ago.

Stock markets in the US fell. The S&P 500 fell 1.2 percent Friday, bringing its loss for the week to 5.6 percent. That’s its biggest weekly drop since the week through March 20, when stocks plunged 15 percent before they began to rebound after the Federal Reserve and lawmakers in Washington stepped in to bolster the economy. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 6.5 percent for the week, also its worst decline since March.  The latest sell-off has come as a second wave of cases forced more lockdowns in Europe, threatening the economic recovery and spooking investors around the world. In the United States, a record number of cases is prompting city and county governments to start imposing curfews and limits on gatherings.  The decline on Friday leaves the S&P 500 with a gain of just 1.2 percent for the year. As recently as Oct. 12, the index was up more than 9 percent for the year.