Qatar & COVID-19: Part 11, February 2021 Return to Restrictions in Light of a Doubling of Infections

Predictable Responses to "Pandemic Fatigue" 

and a More Contagious Variant of the Virus 

Just when I was lacking motivation to maintain my daily account of the pandemic, a task I began in March 2020, increasing infections in Qatar has me wanting to track the daily information.  I actually found that my lack of attention to daily information made it more difficult to understand the unfolding nature of the pandemic.  So I'm back to work. 

I also want to report that I have gotten two doses of the Pfizer vaccine.  I am so very grateful to Qatar for making the vaccine available to higher-risk residents.  After the first dose, I had a sore arm at the injection site, a slight headache, and fatigue after the first dose.  I felt fine the next day.  After the second dose, I expected a stronger response given my developing antibodies.  But, instead, I only experienced a sore arm.  It may have helped that I tool an afternoon nap.  So, based on my experience, I strongly recommend the vaccine. 

Also, in December and January, I wrote a book currently titled: What are Essential Businesses in a Pandemic?  Legal and Cultural Comparisons Between Qatar and the United States. Here is the abstract:

During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, officials in Qatar and the United States ordered lock-downs to control the spread of the virus. Officials designated businesses that they deemed essential.  Once deemed essential, these businesses remained open, and people adhering to stay-at-home orders or guidelines could shop at these businesses.  Typically, officials designated grocery stores, pharmacies, and health care centers as essential.  But, other essential businesses varied. This paper compares the different businesses declared essential in Qatar and in the U.S.  For example, while Qatar closed congregational places of worship, including mosques, some U.S. officials designated places of worship as essential.  In some U.S. states, governors declared stores selling liquor or weapons as essential businesses. This article considers the legal and cultural implications of these designations, and their possible impact on infection rates and deaths. It compares Qatar to Kansas, a U.S. state with a population similar to Qatar.

In late January 2021, Qatar officials warned the public of the rising number of cases and strongly urged people to adhere to all precautionary measures.  

For example: “We urge members of the community to continue their commitment to preventive measures: social distancing, wearing a mask, and avoiding close contact with others, crowded places and confined closed spaces where other people congregate,” said Manager at Umm Ghuwailina Health Centre, Dr. Shawqiya Al Majid. “When the number of cases started to decrease few months before, people thought that they can be free and go back to normal daily activity without following preventive measures. But that is not the reality. In reality is not over yet. We still need to stay safe,” said Dr. Al Majid.

Officials also launched a social media campaign to improve the use of masks, saying, “Face masks are a proven way to help prevent the spread of COVID-19.” The appropriate use, storage and cleaning or disposal of masks is essential to make them as effective as possible.The steps to follow while wearing a face mask include: washing or sanitising hands before putting on and after removing the mask; ensuring the mask fits to cover nose, mouth and chin; washing hands before and after touching the mask; not allowing the mask to hang around the neck; and changing the mask if its visibly soiled or moist.

She said that even people who have been infected with COVID-19 virus earlier should continue to wear masks and keep social distancing as they could transmit the virus to others. “Everyone should wear masks,” Dr. Al Majid said. “If we are learning anything, it’s that we do have proof that masks and distancing are effective. It is a really important message to get out. We should prevent a potential second wave of COVID-19,” she said.

But, with pandemic fatigue and a complacency perhaps sparked by the arrival of vaccines and the governments success at curbing the spread of the virus, infections continued to rise.  Were we now seeing the impact of one of the more infectious variants?  

  

In the U.S., health officials -- now getting support from the Biden administration -- began urging people to double-mask against the variants from the U.K., South Africa, and perhaps even the U.S.  For a good discussion of how these variants arise, I suggest reading Laurie Garret's book, The Coming Plague, which I saw for sale at Jarir Bookstore on Salwa Road. 

Qatar's Response to the Pandemic:  The Ongoing Timeline 

What follows is a time-line I created to track mostly Qatar's response to the pandemic,  Tangentially and for comparison, it refers to developments in the West.  For its sourcing, I have relied on The Peninsula Qatar, Gulf News, Gulf Times, Qatar Tribune, Al Jazzera, the New York Times, and the Washington Post.  I often reproduce content from the original source without using quotation marks, but I always include a link to the original source.

I pick-up my daily updates here.   My updates for December 31, 2019 to April 30, 2020, appear in my earliest post.  You can also access information for each of these months: May, June, July, August, September, October, November (draft), December (draft) of 2020, and January (draft) 2021. 

Feb. 1:  Qatar reported 385 new cases, with 363 community infections and 22 from travelers.  Infections total 151,720, with 5,518 active infections and 249 total deaths.  A 66-year old died. Officials tested 5,211 people for the first time (showing their contact tracing efforts).  Hospitals admitted 63 people, bringing total to 469.  ICUs admitted 5 people, bringing the total there to 53. 

Police arrest 6 people for violating home quarantine rules.   Ministry of Interior (MoI) takes action against 263 individuals for not wearing masks in public.

FIFA officials announce that World Cup 2022 games will play to full stadiums. 

Feb. 2:  Qatar reported 375 new cases, with 356 community infections and 19 from travelers.  Infections total 152,095, with 5,735 active infections and 249 total deaths.  Officials tested 5,858 people for the first time (showing their contact tracing efforts).  Hospitals admitted 75 people, bringing total to 481.  ICUs admitted 5 people, bringing the total there to 55. 

Ministry of Public Health (MoPH) has launched a link on its website where Covid-19 vaccination certificates can be viewed, downloaded and printed.

Police arrested 6 people for violating the home quarantine requirements.  Failure to adhere to home quarantine after arriving from abraod was ne path for the introduction of the UK and South African variants. The Ministry of Interior (MoI) took action against 217 individuals for not wearing masks in public.  The news story does not explain what "took action" means.

Officials close the Al Khor Festival to reduce spread of the virus. Social media reported crowded conditions with many mask violations at the site. 

National Sports Day comes with new restrictions to help contain the virus. Sporting activities for this year should be individual and only in the open places, so that the number of players or participants does not exceed four people in one group.

Feb. 3:  Qatar reported 396 new cases, with 353 community infections and 43 from travelers.  Infections total 152,491, with 5,940 active infections and 249 total deaths.  Officials tested 6,952 people for the first time (showing their contact tracing efforts).  Hospitals admitted 69 people.  ICUs admitted 10 people, bringing the total there to 58. 

Officials withdrew the more flexible rules of Phase 4, Part 1 reopening.  Residents saw a return to what I would call Phase 2.5 restrictions, somewhere between the Phase 2 reopening rules effective July 1 and the Phase 3 reopening rules effective July 28.  While officials did not indicate how long the new restrictions would last, I expect them to be in place no less than two weeks and most likely for at least a month.  If their goal is to limit the spread of the variants as they increase the number of people vaccinated, these restrictions may apply for several months. 

• No more than 80 percent of the staff shall work from office while the remaining 20 percent shall work from home or remotely, in both government and private sectors.
• Office meetings cannot have more than 15 persons, and the attendees must take all prevailing COVID-19 preventive and precautionary measures
• All citizens and residents are required to wear masks when they leave homes for any reason, unless the person by himself or herself in a vehicle.
• Ehteraz smartphone application is a must for all
• While mosques will remain open to perform the daily and Friday prayers, toilets and ablution facilities shall remain closed
• Funerals and other public gatherings shall not have more than five people in closed places and 15 in the open.
• Winter camps shall not have more than 15 people
• Weddings shall not be held in closed or open places until further notice, with the exception of weddings held at home or in the majlis, with a crowd of no more than 10 people in enclosed spaces and 20 people in open spaces; the attendees must be relatives of the spouses; Ministry of Interior must be notified of the date and place of the wedding ceremony.
• Gatherings in playgrounds and around sports equipment in public parks, beaches and the Corniche shall be limited to a maximum of 15 people
• No more than four people shall be in a vehicle, including the driver of the vehicle, with the exception of families
• Buses and vans shall not transport people in no more than half their seating capacities;
• Metro and public transport services will continue to operate but at 30 percent capacity
• Driving schools shall not operate at more than 25 percent capacity.
• Cinemas and theatres can continue to operate at 30 percent, but are not allowed to enter persons under 18 years old.
• Educational centres and private training centres shall operate at 30 percent.
• Nurseries and childcare facilities shall operate at 30 percent capacity.
• Stopping the services of renting boats, tourist yachts and pleasure boats. Owners of boats and personal yachts are obligated, if they are used, that no more than 15 people are on board.
• Reducing the capacity of popular markets to 50 percent.
• Reducing the capacity of wholesale markets to 30 percent.
• Reducing the capacity of hairdressing and beauty salons to 30%.
• Closing down amusement parks and all entertainment centers in commercial complexes inside closed places, and allowing them to work in open spaces only, with a capacity that does not exceed 30 percent.
• Continuing the work of health clubs and physical training clubs with a capacity not exceeding 30 percent, and the continued provision of massage services in five-star hotels only with a capacity not exceeding 30 percent, and the closure of saunas and steam rooms, jacuzzi services and Moroccan and Turkish baths.
• Closing all indoor swimming pools and indoor water parks, and continuing to operate outdoor swimming pools and outdoor water parks with a capacity not exceeding 30 percent.
• The work of private health care facilities continues to provide all their services

Restrictions on restaurants:

• Limiting the capacity of indoor seating areas to 15% of the premises' total capacity.
• Limiting the capacity of indoor seating areas to 30% of the premises' total capacity (for restaurants and cafés that have the “Qatar Clean" Program certificate).
• Limiting the capacity of outdoor seating areas to 50% of the commercial site's total capacity.
• Closing food courts in shopping centers and malls, such that restaurants only prepare takeaway or delivery orders.

Restrictions on schools:

• Continuation of the blended education system in all public and private schools and kindergartens at the current level with the implementation of the weekly rotating attendance schedules.
• Reduction of the capacity of nurseries and childcare to 30 percent.

As the end of December 2020, the Ministry increased the attendance rate in public schools and private schools/preschools to 50% of their capacity and to continue with blended learning.

Dr Abdullatif Al Khal, Chair of the National Health Strategic Group on COVID-19 and Head of Infectious Diseases at Hamad Medical Corporation confirmed my assessment of the nature of the restrictions as Phase 2.5.  Explaining the four-tier plan, Dr Al Khal said first restrictions are imposed on high-risk activities and at the second level restrictions are on medium-risk activities, followed by more restrictions in third level if the numbers go up with the final level plan being complete closure.  Officials implemented most of the restrictions from the second level of the plan, with some exceptions.

He further stated that the ministry adopts six indicators to measure the extent of virus’s spread and to take appropriate decisions - the overall rate of positive daily examinations, the percentage of positive screening in randomized surveys, the number of severe injuries daily that are hospitalized, the number of daily critical cases admitted to intensive care units, a 14-day cumulative incidence rate per 100,000, and reproductive number (Rt).

Dr. Khal also raised the prospect that the UK and South African variants of the virus have reached Qatar's shores. 

Police patrols on roads and neighbourhoods will be increased to catch those violating precautionary measures, said Brigadier Abdullah Khalifa Al Muftah, Director of the Public Relations Department at the Ministry of Interior (MoI).  In fact, I went through a checkpoint on my way to the university.  They were looking for mask wearing and vehicle occupancy.  They were not checking the phone app status. 

On that day, the Ministry of Interior (MoI) took action against 183 individuals for not wearing masks in public. The official referred these individuals to the Public Prosecution. Police also referred ten people  for violating the limit allowed in a vehicle, which is specified as four persons, including the driver, except for members of the same family.  Till now 8,853 people have been referred to the Public Prosecution for not wearing masks and 287 people for not following the limit of people inside a vehicle, which is specified as 4 including the driver, except for the members of the same family.

Researchers at Qatar University (QU), Weill Cornell Medicine – Qatar (WCM-Q), Ministry of Public Health, and Hamad Medical Corporation have developed a sophisticated mathematical model to inform the national COVID-19 public-health response and to help formulate evidence-based policy decisions to minimize the pandemic’s toll on health, society, and the economy.  The modeling study, published in the Journal of Global Health, was implemented in real-time, before the first case of community transmission of COVID-19 in Qatar, and was continuously updated and refined as more data became available. The model predicted with reasonable accuracy the key epidemiologic indicators, such as the epidemic peak and the impact of easing of restrictions and health care needs.

The study allowed monitoring of the effective reproduction number of the virus (known as Rt), which is a key measure of how fast the virus is spreading in the population. The plan for the easing of restrictions was implemented based on this estimate for Rt. This science-based approach proved to be a successful strategy as no second wave has materialised after more than seven months of the epidemic peak.  “The forecasts were quite close to what happened eventually. Qatar was able to prepare well for what was coming, and at no time was the health system overwhelmed with COVID-19 burden,” said Dr. Houssein Ayoub, lead author of the study and Assistant Professor in the Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics at QU.

The study found that Qatar was able to flatten the epidemic curve. The public health interventions reduced the epidemic peaks for acute-care hospital admissions and ICU admissions by more than 75 percent, reducing the toll to a manageable level for the health care system. The study also found that majority of infections did not require hospitalisation.  The low infection severity appears to be a consequence of the young age profile of the population, and a well-funded health care system.

"We are in a tricky situation, and we are not winning."  This is the response to the news about the danger of the variant viruses from the UK, South Africa, and Brazil. For more on the variants, see here.  They are more transmissible or developing an ability to avoid effects of vaccine or both.  If people do not adhere carefully to precautions, we could be dealing with COVID-19 until later 2022. 

An antibody cocktail now used to treat patients fighting COVID-19 could help prevent infections in those living with or caring for coronavirus patients, University of Virginia researchers involved in studying the drug say.  Called REGEN-COV2, the treatment received emergency use authorization in late November from the FDA to treat high-risk patients with mild to moderate disease. President Donald Trump received the therapy when he was hospitalized for coronavirus last year. The treatment is infused into the bloodstream and is meant to mimic an immune response to infection. It provides passive immunity in that the patient’s body does not need to generate its own antibodies.  In early results from the study, the cocktail successfully stopped 100% of symptomatic COVID-19 infections among people who were exposed to the virus. It also helped those already infected but asymptomatic to limit the amount of virus in their bodies and led to quick recovery, usually within a week.

Feb. 4:

Feb. 5:

Feb. 6:

Feb. 7:

Feb. 8:

Feb. 9:

Feb. 10:

The age limit for those who are eligible to take the COVID-19 vaccine has been further lowered. Now, Qataris of all ages and non-Qataris above 50 years can take the vaccine in the ongoing phase of the immunization campaign.

For months, China resisted allowing World Health Organization experts into the country to trace the origins of the global pandemic, concerned that such an inquiry could draw attention to the government’s early missteps in handling the outbreak. After a global uproar, the Chinese government finally relented, allowing a team of 14 scientists to visit laboratories, disease-control centers and live-animal markets over the past 12 days in the city of Wuhan. But instead of scorn, the W.H.O. experts on Tuesday delivered praise for Chinese officials and endorsed critical parts of their narrative, including some that have been contentious. The W.H.O. team opened the door to a theory embraced by Chinese officials, saying it was possible the virus might have spread to humans through shipments of frozen food, an idea that has gained little traction with scientists outside China. And the experts pledged to investigate reports that the virus might have been present outside China months before the outbreak in Wuhan in late 2019, a longstanding demand of Chinese officials. The W.H.O., by design, is beholden to its member countries and has long struck a diplomatic tone in dealing with the Chinese government, which is notoriously resistant to outside scrutiny. The inquiry is still in its earliest stages — it could take years — and W.H.O. officials have promised a rigorous and transparent examination of data and research by China and other countries. Still, the findings announced Tuesday gave Beijing a public relations win as it comes under attack from officials in the United States and elsewhere for its initial efforts to conceal the outbreak.

Feb. 11:

Ministry of Interior launched a new service through Metrash2 that allows everyone to submit an application for approval to hold an event (e.g., party or condolence) without visiting the security departments.